Duke Blue Devils vs. North Texas Mean Green (W)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Duke Blue Devils (50%) · Duke Blue Devils at 50¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 8

Duke Blue Devils50¢North Texas Mean Green50¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Duke Blue Devils

Consensus Traders

Duke Blue Devils 50%

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

-$922.79

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 50.4¢

-12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidDuke Blue Devils at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Duke Blue Devils

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Duke Blue Devils50%

North Texas Mean Green50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Duke Blue Devils5 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares15,888

Combined PnL$-1.1K

North Texas Mean Green5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,360

Combined PnL+$138.96

Duke Blue Devils — 50%North Texas Mean Green — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Duke Blue Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDuke Blue Devils 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Duke Blue Devils 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Duke Blue Devilsavg 54.2¢	$4.3K	$4.0K	-$302.54	53% 3778-3377 (7155)
38 38791873984189	Duke Blue Devilsavg 58.4¢	$6.0K	$3.0K	-$481.37	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzfCTR	North Texas Mean Greenavg 47.8¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$66.13	64% 663-377 (1040)
FO forecastication4	Duke Blue Devilsavg 66¢	$1.2K	$953.49	-$275.95	50% 1569-1581 (3150)
unknowngamblerCTR	North Texas Mean Greenavg 48.4¢	$291.54	$298.85	+$7.31	57% 442-333 (775)
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR	North Texas Mean Greenavg 41¢	$244.18	$295.4	+$51.22	64% 1253-708 (1961)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	North Texas Mean Greenavg 48.6¢	$197.84	$198.4	+$0.56	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
PA Pan9X<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 58¢	$31.06	$29.23	-$1.83	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
FY fydiCTR<$100	North Texas Mean Greenavg 6¢	$1.89	$15.63	+$13.74	51% 373-362 (735)
RL RLWG<$100	Duke Blue Devilsavg 53¢	$2.58	$2.52	-$0.06	50% 8560-8732 (17292)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$4,296.81

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$302.54

Record

53%

3778-3377 (7155)

38791873984189

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$6,017.58

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$481.37

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzfCTR

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$1,784.29

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$66.13

Record

64%

663-377 (1040)

forecastication4

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$1,229.44

Value

$953.49

PnL

-$275.95

Record

50%

1569-1581 (3150)

unknowngamblerCTR

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$291.54

Value

$298.85

PnL

+$7.31

Record

57%

442-333 (775)

lukibazdonauki754CTR

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$244.18

Value

$295.4

PnL

+$51.22

Record

64%

1253-708 (1961)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$197.84

Value

$198.4

PnL

+$0.56

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

Pan9X<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$31.06

Value

$29.23

PnL

-$1.83

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

fydiCTR<$100

North Texas Mean Green

Invested

$1.89

Value

$15.63

PnL

+$13.74

Record

51%

373-362 (735)

RLWG<$100

Duke Blue Devils

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.52

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

8560-8732 (17292)

Research grade

AvoidDuke Blue Devils at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Duke Blue Devils

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Duke Blue Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDuke Blue Devils 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Duke Blue Devils 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Duke Blue Devils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.