Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

FC København vs. Brøndby IF: O/U 1.5

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 41¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Over41¢Under59¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 17%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$133.94

Research grade

NeutralOver at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$359.27

Total Shares719

Combined PnL+$176.75

Over1 trader

Total Value$73.81

Total Shares148

Combined PnL-$42.81

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 68.5¢	$2.8K	$2.5K	-$284.61	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Over leg	Overavg 68.5¢	$2.3K	$1.4K	-$951.62
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.3¢	$461.76	$1.1K	+$667.02
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 42.9¢	$575.53	$551.13	-$24.4	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.9¢	$459.84	$434.46	-$25.38
└ Under leg	Underavg 59¢	$115.69	$116.67	+$0.98
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 55.9¢	$440.2	$326.34	-$76.54	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.9¢	$279.11	$202.26	-$87.92
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$112.7	$124.08	+$11.38
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 43¢	$145.78	$153.67	+$7.89	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$83.17	$78.34	-$4.84
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.4¢	$62.6	$75.33	+$12.73
LI Limousin	Underavg 22.9¢	$68.57	$150	+$81.43	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$120.25	$111.16	-$9.09	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.2¢	$60.75	$70.66	+$9.91
└ Over leg	Overavg 59.5¢	$59.5	$40.5	-$19
MA MadridTime	Underavg 29.1¢	$60.33	$103.75	+$43.42	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 79¢	$116.62	$73.81	-$42.81	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 21¢	$27.08	$64.48	+$37.4	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 30.2¢	$19.71	$32.6	+$12.89	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 40.4¢	$6.83	$8.44	+$1.62	49% 1844-1936 (3780)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,790.56

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$284.61

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Over$2,328.868.5¢-$951.62

Under$461.7624.3¢+$667.02

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$575.53

Value

$551.13

PnL

-$24.4

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

Over$459.8442.9¢-$25.38

Under$115.6959¢+$0.98

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$440.2

Value

$326.34

PnL

-$76.54

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Over$279.1155.9¢-$87.92

Under$112.754¢+$11.38

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$145.78

Value

$153.67

PnL

+$7.89

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Over$83.1743¢-$4.84

Under$62.649.4¢+$12.73

Limousin

Under

Invested

$68.57

Value

$150

PnL

+$81.43

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Pan9XARB<$100

Under

Invested

$120.25

Value

$111.16

PnL

-$9.09

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Under$60.7551.2¢+$9.91

Over$59.559.5¢-$19

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$60.33

Value

$103.75

PnL

+$43.42

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$116.62

Value

$73.81

PnL

-$42.81

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$27.08

Value

$64.48

PnL

+$37.4

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$19.71

Value

$32.6

PnL

+$12.89

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$6.83

Value

$8.44

PnL

+$1.62

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.