Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Sønderjyske Fodbold (36%) · Sønderjyske Fodbold at 96¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

FC Midtjylland5¢Sønderjyske Fodbold95¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Consensus Traders

Sønderjyske Fodbold 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$109.16

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 95.5¢

+61% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSønderjyske Fodbold at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sønderjyske Fodbold

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FC Midtjylland5%

Sønderjyske Fodbold96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sønderjyske Fodbold4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,059

Combined PnL+$721.55

FC Midtjylland7 traders

Total Value$922.18

Total Shares3,724

Combined PnL-$612.39

Sønderjyske Fodbold — 36%FC Midtjylland — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Sønderjyske Fodbold. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSønderjyske Fodbold 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFC Midtjylland 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000FC Midtjylland 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Sønderjyske Fodboldavg 66.4¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$641.36	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Sønderjyske Fodboldavg 51¢	$1.7K	$879.7	+$8.54	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	FC Midtjyllandavg 40.8¢	$1.2K	$710.94	-$486.88	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sønderjyske Fodboldavg 35¢	$46.99	$80.07	+$68.58	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	FC Midtjyllandavg 49¢	$77.57	$79.84	+$2.27	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
38 38791873984189CTR	FC Midtjyllandavg 51¢	$134	$64.99	-$3.35	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Sønderjyske Fodboldavg 50.1¢	$90.32	$58.57	+$0.95	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ Sønderjyske Fodbold leg	Sønderjyske Fodboldavg 50.1¢	$32.87	$33.77	+$0.9
└ FC Midtjylland leg	FC Midtjyllandavg 50.4¢	$25.8	$24.81	+$0.05
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	FC Midtjyllandavg 53¢	$25.8	$24.53	-$1.26	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	FC Midtjyllandavg 49¢	$38.65	$18.75	-$0.19	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
RN1<$100	Sønderjyske Fodboldavg 61¢	$15.64	$18.72	+$3.08	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
FI FinalOrderCTR	FC Midtjyllandavg 28¢	$103.65	$18.52	-$85.13	46% 238-277 (515)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	FC Midtjyllandavg 46¢	$42.46	$4.62	-$37.84	48% 2079-2257 (4336)

Flaznorp

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Invested

$1,487.33

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$641.36

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

ferrariChampions2026

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Invested

$1,708.16

Value

$879.7

PnL

+$8.54

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

GoalLineGhostCTR

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$1,197.82

Value

$710.94

PnL

-$486.88

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Pan9X<$100

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Invested

$46.99

Value

$80.07

PnL

+$68.58

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$77.57

Value

$79.84

PnL

+$2.27

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

38791873984189CTR

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$134

Value

$64.99

PnL

-$3.35

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

sentrioARB<$100

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Invested

$90.32

Value

$58.57

PnL

+$0.95

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

Sønderjyske Fodbold$32.8750.1¢+$0.9

FC Midtjylland$25.850.4¢+$0.05

SnakeBallCTR<$100

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$25.8

Value

$24.53

PnL

-$1.26

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$38.65

Value

$18.75

PnL

-$0.19

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

RN1<$100

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Invested

$15.64

Value

$18.72

PnL

+$3.08

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

FinalOrderCTR

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$103.65

Value

$18.52

PnL

-$85.13

Record

46%

238-277 (515)

VenusianCTR<$100

FC Midtjylland

Invested

$42.46

Value

$4.62

PnL

-$37.84

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Research grade

NeutralSønderjyske Fodbold at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sønderjyske Fodbold

4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Sønderjyske Fodbold. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSønderjyske Fodbold 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFC Midtjylland 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000FC Midtjylland 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sønderjyske Fodbold wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.