Dota 2: Froglings vs CyberHero (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group A

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold CyberHero (57%) · CyberHero at 73¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11

Froglings27¢CyberHero73¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CyberHero

Consensus Traders

CyberHero 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$117.76

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 73¢

+44% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Froglings27%

CyberHero73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,425

Combined PnL+$447.6

Froglings3 traders

Total Value$635.26

Total Shares2,401

Combined PnL-$565.36

CyberHero — 57%Froglings — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCyberHero 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000CyberHero 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Froglingsavg 44.4¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$68.78	32% 284-613 (897)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 49.6¢	$853.39	$1.2K	+$384.29
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 44.4¢	$879.29	$563.78	-$315.51
BI biying88888	CyberHeroavg 57¢	$824.38	$1.0K	+$179.02	36% 113-199 (312)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	Froglingsavg 49.6¢	$1.1K	$576.64	-$502.23	62% 13-8 (21)
alpheclabs2	CyberHeroavg 40.9¢	$274.37	$496.43	+$222.06	45% 114-137 (251)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	CyberHeroavg 44.3¢	$281.6	$325.87	+$44.27	53% 1799-1610 (3409)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	CyberHeroavg 58.5¢	$306.95	$107.41	+$3.4	51% 446-421 (867)
└ CyberHero leg	CyberHeroavg 58.5¢	$64.41	$81.41	+$17.45
└ Froglings leg	Froglingsavg 46¢	$46.01	$26	-$14.05
CI cigarettesCTR	Froglingsavg 53¢	$106	$52	-$54	53% 5671-5100 (10771)
PA Pan9X<$100	CyberHeroavg 51.5¢	$5.15	$7.4	+$2.25	48% 662-709 (1371)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Froglingsavg 63¢	$15.75	$6.63	-$9.13	9% 40-429 (469)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Froglings

Invested

$1,747.55

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$68.78

Record

32%

284-613 (897)

Both legs:

CyberHero$853.3949.6¢+$384.29

Froglings$879.2944.4¢-$315.51

biying88888

CyberHero

Invested

$824.38

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$179.02

Record

36%

113-199 (312)

JuiceFarmCTR

Froglings

Invested

$1,078.87

Value

$576.64

PnL

-$502.23

Record

62%

13-8 (21)

alpheclabs2

CyberHero

Invested

$274.37

Value

$496.43

PnL

+$222.06

Record

45%

114-137 (251)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

CyberHero

Invested

$281.6

Value

$325.87

PnL

+$44.27

Record

53%

1799-1610 (3409)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$306.95

Value

$107.41

PnL

+$3.4

Record

51%

446-421 (867)

Both legs:

CyberHero$64.4158.5¢+$17.45

Froglings$46.0146¢-$14.05

cigarettesCTR

Froglings

Invested

$106

Value

$52

PnL

-$54

Record

53%

5671-5100 (10771)

Pan9X<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$5.15

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$2.25

Record

48%

662-709 (1371)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Froglings

Invested

$15.75

Value

$6.63

PnL

-$9.13

Record

40-429 (469)

Research grade

NeutralCyberHero at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

CyberHero

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on CyberHero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCyberHero 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000CyberHero 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CyberHero wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.