Dota 2: PlayTime vs Team Synapse (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold PlayTime (30%) · PlayTime at 69¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11

PlayTime69¢Team Synapse31¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PlayTime

Consensus Traders

PlayTime 30%

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$117.43

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 68.5¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PlayTime69%

Team Synapse32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PlayTime3 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares8,075

Combined PnL+$158.84

Team Synapse7 traders

Total Value$603.23

Total Shares1,748

Combined PnL-$41.41

PlayTime — 30%Team Synapse — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on PlayTime. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Synapse 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpPlayTime 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTeam Synapse 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Team Synapse 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Tolkonevminus2	PlayTimeavg 61.5¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	+$222.03	63% 107-62 (169)
UN UNIVERSEMVP	PlayTimeavg 71.1¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$108.19	68% 117-55 (172)
Neimuking	PlayTimeavg 57¢	$570	$655	+$45	60% 70-46 (116)
alpheclabs2CTR	Team Synapseavg 38.9¢	$545.07	$483.2	-$54.87	47% 1344-1523 (2867)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 40.8¢	$57.49	$61.75	+$4.26	48% 62298-67159 (129457)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 39.2¢	$16.5	$28.46	+$11.96	50% 21519-21799 (43318)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 38¢	$7.5	$8.63	+$1.13	48% 7443-7977 (15420)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 42.2¢	$10.3	$8.41	-$1.22	66% 24430-12486 (36916)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 43¢	$9.46	$7.59	-$1.87	47% 9510-10646 (20156)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Team Synapseavg 41.3¢	$6.2	$5.18	-$0.8	54% 10365-8691 (19056)

Tolkonevminus2

PlayTime

Invested

$3,251.93

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$222.03

Record

63%

107-62 (169)

UNIVERSEMVP

PlayTime

Invested

$1,522.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$108.19

Record

68%

117-55 (172)

Neimuking

PlayTime

Invested

$570

Value

$655

PnL

+$45

Record

60%

70-46 (116)

alpheclabs2CTR

Team Synapse

Invested

$545.07

Value

$483.2

PnL

-$54.87

Record

47%

1344-1523 (2867)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$57.49

Value

$61.75

PnL

+$4.26

Record

48%

62298-67159 (129457)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$16.5

Value

$28.46

PnL

+$11.96

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

OddstormCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$7.5

Value

$8.63

PnL

+$1.13

Record

48%

7443-7977 (15420)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$10.3

Value

$8.41

PnL

-$1.22

Record

66%

24430-12486 (36916)

lryyyCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$9.46

Value

$7.59

PnL

-$1.87

Record

47%

9510-10646 (20156)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Team Synapse

Invested

$6.2

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$0.8

Record

54%

10365-8691 (19056)

Research grade

NeutralPlayTime at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PlayTime

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on PlayTime. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Synapse 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpPlayTime 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTeam Synapse 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Team Synapse 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PlayTime wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.