Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Time to Sleep, while the market favors CyberHero (51%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: Time to Sleep vs CyberHero (BO3) - Asgard Championship Group B

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Time to Sleep (33%) · Time to Sleep at 50¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 12

Time to Sleep50¢CyberHero50¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Time to Sleep

Consensus Traders

Time to Sleep 33%

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

$48.56

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 49.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTime to Sleep at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Time to Sleep

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors CyberHero 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Time to Sleep50%

CyberHero51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CyberHero8 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares14,893

Combined PnL+$77.57

Time to Sleep4 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares16,036

Combined PnL-$29

CyberHero — 67%Time to Sleep — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-44 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Time to Sleep. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCyberHero 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCyberHero 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000CyberHero 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	CyberHeroavg 51¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$51.96	51% 3719-3549 (7268)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR	Time to Sleepavg 49¢	$5.4K	$5.3K	+$58.14	—
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfeshCTR	Time to Sleepavg 51.3¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$92.34	6% 27-440 (467)
alpheclabs2	CyberHeroavg 46.9¢	$919.7	$1.0K	+$113.15	43% 118-154 (272)
FL Flaznorp	CyberHeroavg 52.2¢	$661.5	$643.1	-$16.08	51% 1861-1809 (3670)
handandfacetattoCTR	Time to Sleepavg 49¢	$286.33	$289.25	+$2.92	100% 71-0 (71)
LI Liquidifier	CyberHeroavg 61¢	$338.55	$288.6	-$49.95	10% 10-86 (96)
38 38791873984189	CyberHeroavg 49.7¢	$250.32	$259.47	+$9.15	48% 1401-1536 (2937)
SH shiifoo	CyberHeroavg 68.4¢	$122.94	$93.52	-$29.42	62% 1325-798 (2123)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Time to Sleepavg 47¢	$42.84	$45.12	+$2.28	15% 146-841 (987)
SE sentrio<$100	CyberHeroavg 59.3¢	$19.85	$20.5	+$0.65	38% 358-588 (946)
PA Pan9X<$100	CyberHeroavg 64.1¢	$17.31	$10.92	-$1.89	49% 678-717 (1395)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

CyberHero

Invested

$5,300

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$51.96

Record

51%

3719-3549 (7268)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR

Time to Sleep

Invested

$5,448.93

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$58.14

Record

—

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfeshCTR

Time to Sleep

Invested

$2,553.36

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$92.34

Record

27-440 (467)

alpheclabs2

CyberHero

Invested

$919.7

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$113.15

Record

43%

118-154 (272)

Flaznorp

CyberHero

Invested

$661.5

Value

$643.1

PnL

-$16.08

Record

51%

1861-1809 (3670)

handandfacetattoCTR

Time to Sleep

Invested

$286.33

Value

$289.25

PnL

+$2.92

Record

100%

71-0 (71)

Liquidifier

CyberHero

Invested

$338.55

Value

$288.6

PnL

-$49.95

Record

10%

10-86 (96)

38791873984189

CyberHero

Invested

$250.32

Value

$259.47

PnL

+$9.15

Record

48%

1401-1536 (2937)

shiifoo

CyberHero

Invested

$122.94

Value

$93.52

PnL

-$29.42

Record

62%

1325-798 (2123)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Time to Sleep

Invested

$42.84

Value

$45.12

PnL

+$2.28

Record

15%

146-841 (987)

sentrio<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$19.85

Value

$20.5

PnL

+$0.65

Record

38%

358-588 (946)

Pan9X<$100

CyberHero

Invested

$17.31

Value

$10.92

PnL

-$1.89

Record

49%

678-717 (1395)

Research grade

NeutralTime to Sleep at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Time to Sleep

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors CyberHero 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-44 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Time to Sleep. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCyberHero 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCyberHero 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000CyberHero 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Time to Sleep wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.