Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold LEGION, while the market favors Xipto Esports (60%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold LEGION (38%) · LEGION at 40¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 11

Xipto Esports60¢LEGION40¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LEGION

Consensus Traders

LEGION 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.2K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 40¢

-30% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Xipto Esports 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xipto Esports60%

LEGION40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LEGION3 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares15,838

Combined PnL+$262.52

Xipto Esports5 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares13,671

Combined PnL+$1.3K

LEGION — 38%Xipto Esports — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE GeorgeReCTR	LEGIONavg 59.9¢	$7.8K	$8.0K	+$206.2	53% 698-629 (1327)
0X 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592	Xipto Esportsavg 52.2¢	$3.0K	$3.4K	+$449.33	46% 426-495 (921)
SI Sisyphus-	Xipto Esportsavg 44.9¢	$2.5K	$3.4K	+$827.79	57% 514-393 (907)
RA RandomVibecoderCTR	LEGIONavg 43.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$44.4	48% 491-535 (1026)
MA madar78	Xipto Esportsavg 39¢	$759.11	$750.11	-$9.01	35% 19-35 (54)
0X 0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100	Xipto Esportsavg 50¢	$161.77	$161.78	+$0.01	8% 17-185 (202)
└ Xipto Esports leg	Xipto Esportsavg 50¢	$81	$85.86	+$4.86
└ LEGION leg	LEGIONavg 50¢	$80.77	$75.92	-$4.85
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Xipto Esportsavg 56.5¢	$104.94	$103.67	-$1.27	53% 1788-1588 (3376)
QW qwerqr1251251	Xipto Esportsavg 59.4¢	$100	$96	-$4	15% 25-143 (168)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	LEGIONavg 32¢	$50.88	$62.81	+$11.92	46% 109-130 (239)

GeorgeReCTR

LEGION

Invested

$7,777

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$206.2

Record

53%

698-629 (1327)

0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592

Xipto Esports

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$449.33

Record

46%

426-495 (921)

Sisyphus-

Xipto Esports

Invested

$2,535.84

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$827.79

Record

57%

514-393 (907)

RandomVibecoderCTR

LEGION

Invested

$1,169.88

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$44.4

Record

48%

491-535 (1026)

madar78

Xipto Esports

Invested

$759.11

Value

$750.11

PnL

-$9.01

Record

35%

19-35 (54)

0xffAaEFb5f6762Cc70cb575Da8722E8C895E38cEe-1767374935341ARB<$100

Xipto Esports

Invested

$161.77

Value

$161.78

PnL

+$0.01

Record

17-185 (202)

Both legs:

Xipto Esports$8150¢+$4.86

LEGION$80.7750¢-$4.85

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Xipto Esports

Invested

$104.94

Value

$103.67

PnL

-$1.27

Record

53%

1788-1588 (3376)

qwerqr1251251

Xipto Esports

Invested

$100

Value

$96

PnL

-$4

Record

15%

25-143 (168)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

LEGION

Invested

$50.88

Value

$62.81

PnL

+$11.92

Record

46%

109-130 (239)

Research grade

NeutralLEGION at 40%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

LEGION

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Xipto Esports 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LEGION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.