Will Mushuc Runa SC vs. Delfin SC end in a draw?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 63¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$3.0K
-$16.73
72.9¢ → 63¢
-14% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Noavg 73¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$12.03 | — |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 71.8¢ | $574.12 | $577.73 | +$3.61 | — |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 73.4¢ | $577.87 | $570.59 | -$7.28 | — |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $34.18 | $33.95 | -$0.23 | — |
BI biying99999<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $29.93 | $29.72 | -$0.21 | — |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 73.7¢ | $17.01 | $16.72 | -$0.29 | — |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 73.5¢ | $14.7 | $14.5 | -$0.2 | — |
 machinelearned<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $6.3 | $6.2 | -$0.1 | — |
Invested
$1,757.08
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$12.03
Record
—
Invested
$574.12
Value
$577.73
PnL
+$3.61
Record
—
Invested
$577.87
Value
$570.59
PnL
-$7.28
Record
—
RN1<$100Invested
$34.18
Value
$33.95
PnL
-$0.23
Record
—
Invested
$29.93
Value
$29.72
PnL
-$0.21
Record
—
tradecraft<$100Invested
$17.01
Value
$16.72
PnL
-$0.29
Record
—
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$14.7
Value
$14.5
PnL
-$0.2
Record
—
machinelearned<$100Invested
$6.3
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$0.1
Record
—
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.