Will Wigan Athletic FC win on 2026-10-03?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 68¢ · $549 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$549.28
-$11.63
69¢ → 67.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 68.3¢ | $238.57 | $235.69 | -$2.88 | 49% 14175-14774 (28949) |
 RN1 | Noavg 70¢ | $233.33 | $225 | -$8.33 | 53% 59235-51541 (110776) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 70.8¢ | $33.36 | $31.79 | -$1.56 | 53% 1052-943 (1995) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $26.99 | $28.25 | +$1.26 | 74% 2398-838 (3236) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 61.4¢ | $14.11 | $14.38 | +$0.42 | 58% 49585-35695 (85280) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 67.1¢ | $11.75 | $11.81 | +$0.07 | 52% 1065-966 (2031) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 69.7¢ | $20.9 | $2.36 | -$0.6 | 58% 44814-32606 (77420) |
Invested
$238.57
Value
$235.69
PnL
-$2.88
Record
49%
14175-14774 (28949)
RN1Invested
$233.33
Value
$225
PnL
-$8.33
Record
53%
59235-51541 (110776)
Invested
$33.36
Value
$31.79
PnL
-$1.56
Record
53%
1052-943 (1995)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$26.99
Value
$28.25
PnL
+$1.26
Record
74%
2398-838 (3236)
Invested
$14.11
Value
$14.38
PnL
+$0.42
Record
58%
49585-35695 (85280)
Invested
$11.75
Value
$11.81
PnL
+$0.07
Record
52%
1065-966 (2031)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$20.9
Value
$2.36
PnL
-$0.6
Record
58%
44814-32606 (77420)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.