Will Huddersfield Town AFC win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 98¢ · $733 held · ends Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$732.85

Combined PnL

-$43.57

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 98.4¢

+22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$679.07

Total Shares693

Combined PnL+$2.41

Yes3 traders

Total Value$53.77

Total Shares3,020

Combined PnL-$45.98

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97.9¢	$277.39	$275.53	+$1.27	50% 66185-66688 (132873)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 97.2¢	$220.22	$223.05	+$2.83	64% 1259-710 (1969)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 54.5¢	$102.91	$97.47	-$4.78	52% 49211-46180 (95391)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 2.7¢	$31.78	$77.33	+$0.67	43% 5573-7258 (12831)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$58.5	$49.64	-$31.83	50% 24077-24172 (48249)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 57¢	$3.34	$5.7	+$2.42	53% 3124-2733 (5857)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 39.5¢	$17.17	$3.11	-$14.06	58% 53643-38159 (91802)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.2	$1.02	-$0.09	51% 435-413 (848)

cigarettes

Invested

$277.39

Value

$275.53

PnL

+$1.27

Record

50%

66185-66688 (132873)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$220.22

Value

$223.05

PnL

+$2.83

Record

64%

1259-710 (1969)

Flaznorp

Invested

$102.91

Value

$97.47

PnL

-$4.78

Record

52%

49211-46180 (95391)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$31.78

Value

$77.33

PnL

+$0.67

Record

43%

5573-7258 (12831)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$58.5

Value

$49.64

PnL

-$31.83

Record

50%

24077-24172 (48249)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$3.34

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$2.42

Record

53%

3124-2733 (5857)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.17

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$14.06

Record

58%

53643-38159 (91802)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.09

Record

51%

435-413 (848)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.