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9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 95¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 7

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$14.3K

Combined PnL

$23.47

Smart Money Entry

94.1¢ → 95¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares14,525

Combined PnL+$103.87

Yes3 traders

Total Value$450.36

Total Shares8,907

Combined PnL-$80.4

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 93¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$88.02	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 95.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$4.94	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 94.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$1.55	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
VE Venusian	Noavg 93.2¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$32.11	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LI Limousin	Noavg 94.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$8.63	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 93¢	$998.55	$1.0K	+$4.07	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
PE pelik	Noavg 99.9¢	$588.77	$559.89	-$28.88	99% 5182-74 (5256)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 95.2¢	$505.46	$504.2	-$1.26	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 93.9¢	$383.99	$388.55	+$4.56	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 6.6¢	$476.83	$361.99	-$114.84	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$13.89	$55	+$41.11	28% 1145-2969 (4114)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$40.04	$33.37	-$6.67	51% 38648-37820 (76468)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,464.71

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$88.02

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,979.83

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$4.94

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,898.49

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.55

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Venusian

Invested

$1,682.51

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$32.11

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Limousin

Invested

$1,286.84

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$8.63

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$998.55

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$4.07

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

pelik

Invested

$588.77

Value

$559.89

PnL

-$28.88

Record

99%

5182-74 (5256)

LightParadox

Invested

$505.46

Value

$504.2

PnL

-$1.26

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

38791873984189

Invested

$383.99

Value

$388.55

PnL

+$4.56

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$476.83

Value

$361.99

PnL

-$114.84

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.89

Value

$55

PnL

+$41.11

Record

28%

1145-2969 (4114)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.04

Value

$33.37

PnL

-$6.67

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.