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4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$34.38

Smart Money Entry

94.3¢ → 97.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,839

Combined PnL+$34.4

Yes4 traders

Total Value$55.99

Total Shares1,631

Combined PnL-$68.79

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 94.5¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$64.45	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 92¢	$90.16	$61.74	-$28.42	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 7.6¢	$110.53	$37.01	-$73.52	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 90¢	$16.92	$17.11	+$0.19	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$12.22	$13.22	+$1	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.03	$4.76	+$3.73	50% 19451-19817 (39268)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 91¢	$5.9	$4.09	-$1.82	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1	$1	-$0	49% 13022-13588 (26610)

RN1

Invested

$2,614.11

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$64.45

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$90.16

Value

$61.74

PnL

-$28.42

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.53

Value

$37.01

PnL

-$73.52

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$16.92

Value

$17.11

PnL

+$0.19

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.22

Value

$13.22

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$3.73

Record

50%

19451-19817 (39268)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$5.9

Value

$4.09

PnL

-$1.82

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.