Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 57¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$4.9K
$29.07
56.2¢ → 57.5¢
+2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 56.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$5 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 56¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$10.82 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Yesavg 43¢ | $753.35 | $753.35 | -$0 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
FO forecastication4 | Noavg 55¢ | $642.4 | $665.76 | +$17.52 | 49% 1199-1227 (2426) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 56.9¢ | $376.37 | $380.22 | +$3.85 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 55.4¢ | $73.17 | $75.24 | +$1.41 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 56.3¢ | $52.49 | $53.19 | +$0.23 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
SL slimjoe<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $26.32 | $26.79 | +$0.24 | 51% 6525-6188 (12713) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,713.25
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$5
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$1,211.87
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$10.82
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$753.35
Value
$753.35
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
Invested
$642.4
Value
$665.76
PnL
+$17.52
Record
49%
1199-1227 (2426)
Invested
$376.37
Value
$380.22
PnL
+$3.85
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$73.17
Value
$75.24
PnL
+$1.41
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$52.49
Value
$53.19
PnL
+$0.23
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$26.32
Value
$26.79
PnL
+$0.24
Record
51%
6525-6188 (12713)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.