Exact Score: Manchester United FC 3 - 3 Aston Villa FC?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 81¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$110.12

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 81.2¢

-14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares6,071

Combined PnL-$173.03

Yes4 traders

Total Value$640.3

Total Shares3,617

Combined PnL+$283.15

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 97.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$35.79	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97.6¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$10.95	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
RN1	Noavg 86.1¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$57.97	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 89.9¢	$688.22	$622.88	-$65.34	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
GC GC-P	Noavg 97.5¢	$480.03	$464.92	-$2.15	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
NM NM-P	Noavg 97.5¢	$467.52	$453.49	-$2.34	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 6.9¢	$118.2	$321.22	+$203.02	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 13.9¢	$174.71	$232.42	+$57.71	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$93.04	$103.52	+$10.48	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
└ No leg	Noavg 94.1¢	$61.78	$53.4	-$8.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 11.6¢	$31.26	$50.12	+$18.87
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.9¢	$58.91	$79.03	+$20.12	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$10.7	$12.22	+$1.52	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$242.18	$7.63	+$2.3	46% 30563-35669 (66232)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,746.06

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$35.79

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,369.16

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$10.95

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

RN1

Invested

$1,062.05

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$57.97

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

38791873984189

Invested

$688.22

Value

$622.88

PnL

-$65.34

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

GC-P

Invested

$480.03

Value

$464.92

PnL

-$2.15

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

NM-P

Invested

$467.52

Value

$453.49

PnL

-$2.34

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$118.2

Value

$321.22

PnL

+$203.02

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$174.71

Value

$232.42

PnL

+$57.71

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

VenusianARB<$100

Invested

$93.04

Value

$103.52

PnL

+$10.48

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Both legs:

No$61.7894.1¢-$8.38

Yes$31.2611.6¢+$18.87

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.91

Value

$79.03

PnL

+$20.12

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$10.7

Value

$12.22

PnL

+$1.52

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$242.18

Value

$7.63

PnL

+$2.3

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.9%

81.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.