Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 100¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 100¢

+56% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares15,139

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Under5 traders

Total Value$304.2

Total Shares2,130

Combined PnL-$432.48

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 67¢	$4.8K	$4.0K	+$769.09	80% 5611-1432 (7043)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 62.8¢	$4.1K	$3.5K	+$939.85	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 64.2¢	$3.1K	$2.7K	+$579.39	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 62.4¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$20.86	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 36.5¢	$914.62	$920.5	+$5.88	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63.4¢	$492.45	$640.5	+$2.13
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.5¢	$583.36	$280	+$3.75
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 62¢	$1.4K	$628.65	-$38.64	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62¢	$364.17	$484.58	+$120.41
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.8¢	$303.05	$144.08	-$159.05
SE sentrio	Overavg 63¢	$542.38	$472.19	+$115.81	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 61¢	$258.3	$263.05	+$4.75	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
FaroeseNationalistCTR	Underavg 36¢	$559.8	$217.7	-$342.1	49% 582-602 (1184)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 36¢	$400	$56	-$88	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 37.6¢	$22.23	$22.68	+$0.46	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 36.3¢	$20	$7.12	-$1.74	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$5	$0.7	-$1.1	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$4,806.76

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$769.09

Record

80%

5611-1432 (7043)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$4,142.67

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$939.85

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$3,074.27

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$579.39

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,539.51

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$20.86

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$914.62

Value

$920.5

PnL

+$5.88

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

Over$492.4563.4¢+$2.13

Under$583.3636.5¢+$3.75

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,410.65

Value

$628.65

PnL

-$38.64

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

Over$364.1762¢+$120.41

Under$303.0536.8¢-$159.05

sentrio

Over

Invested

$542.38

Value

$472.19

PnL

+$115.81

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$258.3

Value

$263.05

PnL

+$4.75

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

FaroeseNationalistCTR

Under

Invested

$559.8

Value

$217.7

PnL

-$342.1

Record

49%

582-602 (1184)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$56

PnL

-$88

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.23

Value

$22.68

PnL

+$0.46

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$1.74

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$1.1

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Over 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.