Consensus PnL $5.9K · win rate 49% (562–574, n=1136) · was PM monthly #979 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$5.9K
Record
562W / 574L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 1136 settled
Batting Avg
77.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1296
Source
PM monthly #979
Record (90 d)
557/1130 · 49%
Trades
1,838
Markets
1,155
Volume
$1.8M
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Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 10 on the consensus side (10%)- Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-04?Yes $2.1K · now 62¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (45% of 42)
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-04?No $1.2K · now 57¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Como 1907 win on 2026-11-04?Yes $1.1K · now 100¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (No)
- Will FC Porto win on 2026-11-04?Yes $1.1K · now 37¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (No)
- RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under $1.0K · now 0¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Over)
- Will Viking FK win on 2026-11-04?No $825 · now 30¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 0%-3%?Yes $585 · now 87¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Sabah FK win on 2026-11-04?Yes $311 · now 8¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,107 settled consensus markets · held side won 49% at an average entry of 47¢- College Football
+6 pts
side won 57% of 155 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +6%
- NFL
+5 pts
side won 55% of 55 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +3%
- NHL
+3 pts
side won 57% of 56 · avg entry 54¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 50% of 109 at an average 53¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 26% of 128)
- 30–50¢: 41%(won 44% of 455)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 57% of 469)
- 70¢ and up: 5%(won 76% of 55)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.