Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will AZ vs. FC Groningen end in a draw?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 48¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

75.2¢ → 47.5¢

-37% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,673

Combined PnL-$229.78

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,975

Combined PnL+$1.5K

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$626.15	$2.5K	+$397.12	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ No leg	Noavg 79.8¢	$2.1K	$1.3K	-$342.23
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.4¢	$486.68	$1.2K	+$739.35
GA GaditimaCTR	Noavg 75.1¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$99.31	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
RN1	Yesavg 18.1¢	$644.76	$1.8K	+$1.2K	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 74.4¢	$482.15	$312.15	-$99.54	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 30.2¢	$130.74	$222.6	+$91.86	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
VE Venusian	Yesavg 30.8¢	$128.04	$214.06	+$86.02	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
PA Pan9XCTR	Noavg 76.7¢	$203.03	$181.32	-$21.71	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
LI Limousin	Yesavg 25.2¢	$75.59	$154.65	+$79.06	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 48.7¢	$116.44	$125.53	+$9.09	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 79.6¢	$56.39	$40.32	-$4.58	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 80¢	$54.62	$39.05	-$4.64	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 41.3¢	$16.37	$20.44	+$4.07	48% 2039-2213 (4252)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$626.15

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$397.12

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

No$2,115.4979.8¢-$342.23

Yes$486.6820.4¢+$739.35

GaditimaCTR

Invested

$2,081.54

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$99.31

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$644.76

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$482.15

Value

$312.15

PnL

-$99.54

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$130.74

Value

$222.6

PnL

+$91.86

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$128.04

Value

$214.06

PnL

+$86.02

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Pan9XCTR

Invested

$203.03

Value

$181.32

PnL

-$21.71

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$75.59

Value

$154.65

PnL

+$79.06

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$116.44

Value

$125.53

PnL

+$9.09

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$56.39

Value

$40.32

PnL

-$4.58

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$54.62

Value

$39.05

PnL

-$4.64

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.37

Value

$20.44

PnL

+$4.07

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.