AZ vs. FC Groningen: O/U 3.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$149.66

Smart Money Entry

55.2¢ → 100¢

+81% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,352

Combined PnL+$156.1

Under7 traders

Total Value$93.28

Total Shares218

Combined PnL-$6.44

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 46¢	$2.0K	$1.2K	+$248.87	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 66.3¢	$1.3K	$705.81	-$36.27	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 77.3¢	$300	$175.5	-$56.5	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 53¢	$152.77	$44.62	-$12.36	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$49.62	$20.59	+$2.23	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$11.7	$9.55	+$0.55	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$19	$7.89	+$1.24	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$15.63	$6.48	+$0.86	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$5	$2.08	+$0.33	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$5	$2.08	+$0.73	49% 2102-2190 (4292)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,990.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$248.87

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,266.23

Value

$705.81

PnL

-$36.27

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$300

Value

$175.5

PnL

-$56.5

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$152.77

Value

$44.62

PnL

-$12.36

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49.62

Value

$20.59

PnL

+$2.23

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.7

Value

$9.55

PnL

+$0.55

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19

Value

$7.89

PnL

+$1.24

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.63

Value

$6.48

PnL

+$0.86

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0.33

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0.73

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.