Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-11-09?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 79¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 9

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$37.69

Smart Money Entry

77.6¢ → 78.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,503

Combined PnL-$45.86

Yes2 traders

Total Value$70.28

Total Shares327

Combined PnL+$8.17

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 77.5¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$44.74	—
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 80¢	$180.64	$190.59	+$9.95	—
└ No leg	Noavg 80¢	$101.43	$99.53	-$0.63
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18¢	$76.24	$91.06	+$10.59
LI LightParadox	Noavg 77¢	$126.86	$128.08	+$1.22	—
NM NM-P	Noavg 81¢	$130.16	$127.72	-$2.44	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 78¢	$84.5	$84.49	-$0.01	—
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$54.03	$61.13	+$7.11	—
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 78¢	$43.97	$43.88	-$0.09	—
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$8.08	$9.14	+$1.06	—
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$11.76	$3.76	+$0.2	—

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,194.86

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$44.74

Record

—

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$180.64

Value

$190.59

PnL

+$9.95

Record

—

Both legs:

No$101.4380¢-$0.63

Yes$76.2418¢+$10.59

LightParadox

Invested

$126.86

Value

$128.08

PnL

+$1.22

Record

—

NM-P

Invested

$130.16

Value

$127.72

PnL

-$2.44

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$84.5

Value

$84.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

—

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.03

Value

$61.13

PnL

+$7.11

Record

—

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$43.97

Value

$43.88

PnL

-$0.09

Record

—

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.08

Value

$9.14

PnL

+$1.06

Record

—

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$11.76

Value

$3.76

PnL

+$0.2

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.