Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Racing Club de Ferrol win on 2026-11-07?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 40¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 7

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$48.18

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 40.5¢

-19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares8,641

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares9,547

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 53.8¢	$3.9K	$4.3K	+$411.42	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
JU justbusiness1CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$3.8K	$3.0K	-$790.88	54% 271-235 (506)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 11.1¢	$144.4	$773.33	+$628.93	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Yesavg 55.9¢	$981.17	$680.66	-$300.51	45% 203-248 (451)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 57.1¢	$39.07	$40.73	+$1.66	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 47.8¢	$48.56	$21.73	+$1.91	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 61¢	$10	$9.75	-$0.41	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 43.2¢	$2.89	$2.6	-$0.3	50% 21550-21844 (43394)

Flaznorp

Invested

$3,895.34

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$411.42

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

justbusiness1CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,811.71

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$790.88

Record

54%

271-235 (506)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$144.4

Value

$773.33

PnL

+$628.93

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

glennyorkshireCTR

Yes

Invested

$981.17

Value

$680.66

PnL

-$300.51

Record

45%

203-248 (451)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$39.07

Value

$40.73

PnL

+$1.66

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$48.56

Value

$21.73

PnL

+$1.91

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$0.41

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.89

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.