Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on November 1?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 100¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$15.7K
$300.08
96.7¢ → 99.9¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 96.2¢ | $11.2K | $11.6K | +$376.87 | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 97.5¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$39.08 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 98.7¢ | $902.67 | $912.26 | +$10.97 | 59% 2238-1571 (3809) |
 Facaie | Yesavg 99.7¢ | $598.2 | $598.2 | +$0 | 93% 1312-105 (1417) |
SH Sharky6999 | Yesavg 97.2¢ | $194.45 | $199.4 | +$4.65 | 98% 6914-167 (7081) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $48.46 | $30.6 | -$47.7 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.8¢ | $5.7 | $2.88 | -$5.62 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
Invested
$11,200.93
Value
$11.6K
PnL
+$376.87
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
Invested
$2,440.04
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$39.08
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$902.67
Value
$912.26
PnL
+$10.97
Record
59%
2238-1571 (3809)
FacaieInvested
$598.2
Value
$598.2
PnL
+$0
Record
93%
1312-105 (1417)
Invested
$194.45
Value
$199.4
PnL
+$4.65
Record
98%
6914-167 (7081)
Invested
$48.46
Value
$30.6
PnL
-$47.7
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$2.88
PnL
-$5.62
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.