Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on November 2?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 99¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 2

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$303.88

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 98.6¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares11,844

Combined PnL+$310.48

No3 traders

Total Value$46.11

Total Shares3,306

Combined PnL-$6.6

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 95.3¢	$8.4K	$8.7K	+$308.88	66% 2460-1291 (3751)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 98.4¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$0.48	89% 4653-547 (5200)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$2.6K	$256.13	+$514.78	59% 1064-740 (1804)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 82¢	$166.68	$199.78	+$339.03
└ No leg	Noavg 3.6¢	$117.86	$56.35	+$175.75
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 98.3¢	$243.74	$244.85	+$1.12	59% 2239-1571 (3810)
TI timetowanderCTR<$100	Noavg 1.3¢	$27.21	$29.39	+$2.18	40% 396-590 (986)
19 196874353278CTR<$100	Noavg 2.2¢	$26.45	$16.49	-$7.63	45% 212-263 (475)
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100	Noavg 8.7¢	$1.45	$0.23	-$1.15	59% 877-611 (1488)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$8,417.19

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$308.88

Record

66%

2460-1291 (3751)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$2,720.74

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$0.48

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,570.68

Value

$256.13

PnL

+$514.78

Record

59%

1064-740 (1804)

Both legs:

Yes$166.6882¢+$339.03

No$117.863.6¢+$175.75

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$243.74

Value

$244.85

PnL

+$1.12

Record

59%

2239-1571 (3810)

timetowanderCTR<$100

Invested

$27.21

Value

$29.39

PnL

+$2.18

Record

40%

396-590 (986)

196874353278CTR<$100

Invested

$26.45

Value

$16.49

PnL

-$7.63

Record

45%

212-263 (475)

gobblewobbleCTR<$100

Invested

$1.45

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$1.15

Record

59%

877-611 (1488)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.