Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on November 1?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$19.79

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 99.9¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares11,558

Combined PnL+$20.67

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.02

Total Shares4

Combined PnL-$0.88

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 97.4¢	$8.5K	$7.9K	-$31.5	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394	Noavg 97.8¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$53.84	59% 1064-740 (1804)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 98.7¢	$339.21	$342.41	+$1.85	59% 2238-1571 (3809)
yen4u	Noavg 99.9¢	$254.66	$254.4	-$0.25	86% 809-136 (945)
SH Sharky6999	Noavg 98.1¢	$184.25	$187.48	+$2.95	98% 6914-167 (7081)
TO Tokor<$100	Noavg 83¢	$74.63	$89.73	+$15.11	62% 795-490 (1285)
GO gobblewobble<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$67.22	$46.28	-$21.33	59% 877-611 (1488)
Facaie<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.98	+$0	93% 1312-105 (1417)
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$0.89	$0.02	-$0.88	54% 394-334 (728)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$8,514.91

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$31.5

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394

Invested

$2,674.63

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$53.84

Record

59%

1064-740 (1804)

0xDB5

Invested

$339.21

Value

$342.41

PnL

+$1.85

Record

59%

2238-1571 (3809)

yen4u

Invested

$254.66

Value

$254.4

PnL

-$0.25

Record

86%

809-136 (945)

Sharky6999

Invested

$184.25

Value

$187.48

PnL

+$2.95

Record

98%

6914-167 (7081)

Tokor<$100

Invested

$74.63

Value

$89.73

PnL

+$15.11

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

gobblewobble<$100

Invested

$67.22

Value

$46.28

PnL

-$21.33

Record

59%

877-611 (1488)

Facaie<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0

Record

93%

1312-105 (1417)

kingofcoinflipsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.88

Record

54%

394-334 (728)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.