Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-11-07?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 12¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Yes89¢No11¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$60.71

Smart Money Entry

11.8¢ → 11.5¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares10,061

Combined PnL-$60.74

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.02

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0.03

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 12¢	$718.7	$622.84	-$54.21	58% 46645-33616 (80261)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 11.3¢	$144.55	$153.4	+$8.85	64% 9850-5517 (15367)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 11.4¢	$142.53	$137.76	-$4.77	64% 9882-5579 (15461)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 12.3¢	$138.68	$129.99	-$8.69	51% 25682-24404 (50086)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Noavg 11.5¢	$35.48	$33.88	-$1.6	69% 7197-3182 (10379)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 12¢	$178.02	$21.36	+$0	50% 25798-25487 (51285)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$14.03	$14.01	-$0.02	53% 16777-14914 (31691)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$13.76	$13.69	-$0.07	51% 37655-36883 (74538)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$5.75	$5.52	-$0.23	48% 61012-65825 (126837)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$1.98	$2.02	+$0.03	64% 1955-1089 (3044)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$1.24	$1.24	+$0	54% 2568-2229 (4797)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$718.7

Value

$622.84

PnL

-$54.21

Record

58%

46645-33616 (80261)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$144.55

Value

$153.4

PnL

+$8.85

Record

64%

9850-5517 (15367)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$142.53

Value

$137.76

PnL

-$4.77

Record

64%

9882-5579 (15461)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$138.68

Value

$129.99

PnL

-$8.69

Record

51%

25682-24404 (50086)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Invested

$35.48

Value

$33.88

PnL

-$1.6

Record

69%

7197-3182 (10379)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$178.02

Value

$21.36

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25798-25487 (51285)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$14.03

Value

$14.01

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

16777-14914 (31691)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$13.76

Value

$13.69

PnL

-$0.07

Record

51%

37655-36883 (74538)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$5.75

Value

$5.52

PnL

-$0.23

Record

48%

61012-65825 (126837)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.03

Record

64%

1955-1089 (3044)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$1.24

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2568-2229 (4797)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.