Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Metz win on 2026-11-07?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 24¢ · $74 held · ends Nov 7

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$74.38

Combined PnL

$0.01

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$66.73

Total Shares273

Combined PnL-$0.1

No1 trader

Total Value$7.65

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.11

Yes — 90%No — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$19.9	$20.35	+$0.45	64% 10093-5697 (15790)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$15.59	$16.3	+$0.71	64% 10069-5627 (15696)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.9¢	$11.05	$10.76	-$0.29	51% 1640-1550 (3190)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.9¢	$9.32	$8.78	-$0.54	49% 1598-1632 (3230)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$13.7	$7.65	+$0.11	58% 47054-33937 (80991)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.9¢	$4.32	$4.16	-$0.16	50% 1585-1603 (3188)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$4.09	$3.86	-$0.23	51% 26319-24948 (51267)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.15	-$0.02	50% 26091-25752 (51843)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.1	$1.08	-$0.02	49% 14849-15643 (30492)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$0.3	$0.31	+$0.01	50% 28610-28439 (57049)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.9

Value

$20.35

PnL

+$0.45

Record

64%

10093-5697 (15790)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.59

Value

$16.3

PnL

+$0.71

Record

64%

10069-5627 (15696)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.05

Value

$10.76

PnL

-$0.29

Record

51%

1640-1550 (3190)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.32

Value

$8.78

PnL

-$0.54

Record

49%

1598-1632 (3230)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$13.7

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$0.11

Record

58%

47054-33937 (80991)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.16

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

1585-1603 (3188)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.09

Value

$3.86

PnL

-$0.23

Record

51%

26319-24948 (51267)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

26091-25752 (51843)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

14849-15643 (30492)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

28610-28439 (57049)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.