Will Asteras Tripolis win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$3.1K
$23.96
89.5¢ → 89.2¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 89.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$24.61 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 89¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$26.59 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $154.47 | $129.68 | -$24.79 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $47.48 | $47.17 | -$0.3 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $45 | $41.18 | -$0.23 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $27.97 | $25.51 | -$2.46 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.7¢ | $8.75 | $9.39 | +$0.64 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $1.09 | $1 | -$0.1 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
RN1Invested
$1,659.06
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$24.61
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$1,177.81
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$26.59
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$154.47
Value
$129.68
PnL
-$24.79
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$47.48
Value
$47.17
PnL
-$0.3
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
Invested
$45
Value
$41.18
PnL
-$0.23
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$27.97
Value
$25.51
PnL
-$2.46
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.75
Value
$9.39
PnL
+$0.64
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$1
PnL
-$0.1
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.