Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
POT Iraklis vs. Panathinaikos Athens: O/U 2.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.5¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 50%
$10.2K
$-3.9K
46.2¢ → 0.5¢
-99% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 37.6¢ | $7.2K | $6.0K | $-1.2K | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
JA JabJabich | Overavg 54.5¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$25.87 | 61% 234-150 (384) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 40¢ | $1.5K | $1.1K | -$426.23 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
 RN1 | Overavg 17.2¢ | $70.97 | $417.64 | +$443.13 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 89.5¢ | $35.77 | $29.18 | -$6.59 | 76% 4861-1510 (6371) |
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 77.3¢ | $2.7K | $17.74 | $-2.7K | 73% 3335-1228 (4563) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $9.11 | $6.91 | -$2.2 | 50% 23433-23429 (46862) |
 dips.<$100 | Overavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $4.98 | +$0.13 | 46% 12026-13917 (25943) |
Invested
$7,162.44
Value
$6.0K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$2,645.6
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$25.87
Record
61%
234-150 (384)
Invested
$1,478.16
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$426.23
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
RN1Invested
$70.97
Value
$417.64
PnL
+$443.13
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
Invested
$35.77
Value
$29.18
PnL
-$6.59
Record
76%
4861-1510 (6371)
Invested
$2,743.11
Value
$17.74
PnL
$-2.7K
Record
73%
3335-1228 (4563)
Invested
$9.11
Value
$6.91
PnL
-$2.2
Record
50%
23433-23429 (46862)
dips.<$100Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.98
PnL
+$0.13
Record
46%
12026-13917 (25943)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.