Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 24¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$237.61
22.2¢ → 24¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
139h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 67¢ | $958.57 | $1.1K | +$136.93 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
AR Arman2CTR | Yesavg 20.8¢ | $941.2 | $1.1K | +$146.94 | 58% 332-242 (574) |
 theta-thunbergCTR | Yesavg 28.1¢ | $409.13 | $335.2 | -$73.92 | 56% 429-337 (766) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 79¢ | $158 | $152 | -$6 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 RelaccsedARB<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $84.99 | $98.99 | +$14 | 56% 1213-967 (2180) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67¢ | $67 | $75.99 | +$9.5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.3¢ | $28.33 | $23 | +$4.5 | |
 Udonsan<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $86.11 | $89.65 | +$4.13 | 79% 250-67 (317) |
 BigRabbitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $77.83 | $62.26 | -$15.57 | 40% 704-1062 (1766) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $5.5 | $50.6 | +$45.1 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
Invested
$958.57
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$136.93
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$941.2
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$146.94
Record
58%
332-242 (574)
theta-thunbergCTRInvested
$409.13
Value
$335.2
PnL
-$73.92
Record
56%
429-337 (766)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$158
Value
$152
PnL
-$6
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
RelaccsedARB<$100Invested
$84.99
Value
$98.99
PnL
+$14
Record
56%
1213-967 (2180)
Both legs:
Udonsan<$100Invested
$86.11
Value
$89.65
PnL
+$4.13
Record
79%
250-67 (317)
BigRabbitCTR<$100Invested
$77.83
Value
$62.26
PnL
-$15.57
Record
40%
704-1062 (1766)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$5.5
Value
$50.6
PnL
+$45.1
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.