Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 90¢ · $36K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$36.5K
-$11.02
88.2¢ → 89.5¢
+2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
1799h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anoin123 | Noavg 88.1¢ | $32.7K | $33.2K | +$504.26 | 47% 476-535 (1011) |
 Warren-BuffettCTR | Yesavg 13.1¢ | $2.7K | $2.1K | -$520.14 | 65% 862-465 (1327) |
 Slowroasted | Noavg 89¢ | $294.67 | $296.47 | +$1.8 | 88% 1990-279 (2269) |
 Car | Noavg 90¢ | $253.73 | $252.31 | -$1.43 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 89.9¢ | $256.82 | $241.01 | -$1.19 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
AV aviato | Noavg 86¢ | $119.32 | $124.17 | +$4.86 | 84% 2440-449 (2889) |
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $100 | $99.44 | -$0.56 | 69% 156-69 (225) |
 tetrase<$100 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $79.5 | $80.55 | +$1.05 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $58.25 | $58.58 | +$0.33 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
Invested
$32,726.83
Value
$33.2K
PnL
+$504.26
Record
47%
476-535 (1011)
Warren-BuffettCTRInvested
$2,650.82
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$520.14
Record
65%
862-465 (1327)
SlowroastedInvested
$294.67
Value
$296.47
PnL
+$1.8
Record
88%
1990-279 (2269)
CarInvested
$253.73
Value
$252.31
PnL
-$1.43
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$256.82
Value
$241.01
PnL
-$1.19
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$119.32
Value
$124.17
PnL
+$4.86
Record
84%
2440-449 (2889)
Invested
$100
Value
$99.44
PnL
-$0.56
Record
69%
156-69 (225)
tetrase<$100Invested
$79.5
Value
$80.55
PnL
+$1.05
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$58.25
Value
$58.58
PnL
+$0.33
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.