M25 Valencia: Samuele Pieri vs Sergio Planella Hernandez
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Samuele Pieri (67%) · Samuele Pieri at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
Samuele Pieri
9
Samuele Pieri 67%
$4.9K
$271.12
85.3¢ → 98.5¢
+16% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralSamuele Pieri at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Samuele Pieriavg 85.6¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$162.13 | 51% 24004-22756 (46760) |
 RN1 | Samuele Pieriavg 82.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$120.88 | 53% 60020-52387 (112407) |
38 38791873984189 | Samuele Pieriavg 90.4¢ | $909.76 | $924.16 | +$66.95 | 48% 58721-62631 (121352) |
 poshposh | Samuele Pieriavg 85.3¢ | $291.56 | $299.12 | +$7.57 | 57% 12169-9271 (21440) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Samuele Pieriavg 86¢ | $75.68 | $77 | +$1.32 | 47% 9165-10272 (19437) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR | Sergio Planella Hernandezavg 43.2¢ | $128.78 | $37.25 | -$91.53 | 53% 3357-2940 (6297) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Samuele Pieriavg 62.7¢ | $20.19 | $22.79 | +$2.6 | 46% 1376-1620 (2996) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Sergio Planella Hernandezavg 6¢ | $9.98 | $13.26 | +$3.28 | 47% 10953-12334 (23287) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Sergio Planella Hernandezavg 54.2¢ | $2.71 | $0.63 | -$2.09 | 82% 6948-1498 (8446) |
Invested
$1,836.86
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$162.13
Record
51%
24004-22756 (46760)
RN1Invested
$1,398.55
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$120.88
Record
53%
60020-52387 (112407)
Invested
$909.76
Value
$924.16
PnL
+$66.95
Record
48%
58721-62631 (121352)
poshposhInvested
$291.56
Value
$299.12
PnL
+$7.57
Record
57%
12169-9271 (21440)
Invested
$75.68
Value
$77
PnL
+$1.32
Record
47%
9165-10272 (19437)
Invested
$128.78
Value
$37.25
PnL
-$91.53
Record
53%
3357-2940 (6297)
Invested
$20.19
Value
$22.79
PnL
+$2.6
Record
46%
1376-1620 (2996)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$13.26
PnL
+$3.28
Record
47%
10953-12334 (23287)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$2.71
Value
$0.63
PnL
-$2.09
Record
82%
6948-1498 (8446)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
Samuele Pieri — $2.0K
RN1
Samuele Pieri — $1.5K
38791873984189
Samuele Pieri — $924.16
poshposh
Samuele Pieri — $299.12
lryyy
Samuele Pieri — $77
0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554
CTRSergio Planella Hernandez — $37.25
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Samuele Pieri — $22.79
topdogbigboi
CTRSergio Planella Hernandez — $13.26
ARTEM-DZYUBA
CTRSergio Planella Hernandez — $0.63