W50 Huamantla: Victoria Rodriguez vs Midori Castillo Meza

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Victoria Rodriguez (44%) · Victoria Rodriguez at 61¢ · $993 held · ends Nov 11

Victoria Rodriguez61¢Midori Castillo Meza39¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Victoria Rodriguez

Consensus Traders

Victoria Rodriguez 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$993.34

Combined PnL

-$29.95

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 60.5¢

-18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralVictoria Rodriguez at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Victoria Rodriguez

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Victoria Rodriguez61%

Midori Castillo Meza40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Victoria Rodriguez4 traders

Total Value$622.92

Total Shares911

Combined PnL-$54.07

Midori Castillo Meza5 traders

Total Value$88.95

Total Shares169

Combined PnL+$24.12

Victoria Rodriguez — 44%Midori Castillo Meza — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	Victoria Rodriguezavg 77.8¢	$492.41	$481.01	-$11.4	45% 175-218 (393)
RN1ARB<$100	Victoria Rodriguezavg 64.4¢	$407.73	$281.46	-$126.26	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
└ Midori Castillo Meza leg	Midori Castillo Mezaavg 70¢	$181.07	$195.22	+$14.15
└ Victoria Rodriguez leg	Victoria Rodriguezavg 64.4¢	$226.66	$86.24	-$140.41
FL Flaznorp	Victoria Rodriguezavg 72¢	$124.37	$92.41	-$31.96	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Midori Castillo Mezaavg 41.1¢	$39.54	$60.53	+$20.99	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Victoria Rodriguezavg 57.2¢	$57.21	$44.5	-$12.71	60% 4348-2912 (7260)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Midori Castillo Mezaavg 58.1¢	$11.69	$14.17	+$2.49	82% 7015-1513 (8528)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Midori Castillo Mezaavg 23.9¢	$7.64	$7.68	+$0.04	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100	Midori Castillo Mezaavg 22¢	$5.58	$6.09	+$0.51	51% 4008-3909 (7917)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Victoria Rodriguezavg 39¢	$3	$5	+$2	54% 6178-5224 (11402)
poshposhCTR<$100	Midori Castillo Mezaavg 19¢	$0.39	$0.49	+$0.1	57% 12266-9326 (21592)

glennyorkshire

Victoria Rodriguez

Invested

$492.41

Value

$481.01

PnL

-$11.4

Record

45%

175-218 (393)

RN1ARB<$100

Victoria Rodriguez

Invested

$407.73

Value

$281.46

PnL

-$126.26

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

Both legs:

Midori Castillo Meza$181.0770¢+$14.15

Victoria Rodriguez$226.6664.4¢-$140.41

Flaznorp

Victoria Rodriguez

Invested

$124.37

Value

$92.41

PnL

-$31.96

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Midori Castillo Meza

Invested

$39.54

Value

$60.53

PnL

+$20.99

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

thestingsnake<$100

Victoria Rodriguez

Invested

$57.21

Value

$44.5

PnL

-$12.71

Record

60%

4348-2912 (7260)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Midori Castillo Meza

Invested

$11.69

Value

$14.17

PnL

+$2.49

Record

82%

7015-1513 (8528)

LimousinCTR<$100

Midori Castillo Meza

Invested

$7.64

Value

$7.68

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100

Midori Castillo Meza

Invested

$5.58

Value

$6.09

PnL

+$0.51

Record

51%

4008-3909 (7917)

Eulhunter<$100

Victoria Rodriguez

Invested

Value

PnL

+$2

Record

54%

6178-5224 (11402)

poshposhCTR<$100

Midori Castillo Meza

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.49

PnL

+$0.1

Record

57%

12266-9326 (21592)

Research grade

NeutralVictoria Rodriguez at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Victoria Rodriguez

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Victoria Rodriguez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.