Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ioannis Xilas, while the market favors Gilles Arnaud Bailly (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

M25 Heraklion: Ioannis Xilas vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ioannis Xilas (56%) · Ioannis Xilas at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Ioannis Xilas<1¢Gilles Arnaud Bailly>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ioannis Xilas

Consensus Traders

Ioannis Xilas 56%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidIoannis Xilas at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ioannis Xilas

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Gilles Arnaud Bailly 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ioannis Xilas0%

Gilles Arnaud Bailly100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ioannis Xilas5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,814

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Gilles Arnaud Bailly4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,577

Combined PnL+$304.04

Ioannis Xilas — 56%Gilles Arnaud Bailly — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Ioannis Xilas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Ioannis Xilas) and the top 1000 (7 on Gilles Arnaud Bailly) disagree here.

whaleIoannis Xilas 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpGilles Arnaud Bailly 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGilles Arnaud Bailly 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedIoannis Xilas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Gilles Arnaud Bailly 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Ioannis Xilasavg 82.9¢	$2.8K	$1.7K	$-1.1K	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Ioannis Xilasavg 60.9¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$89.94	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
CI cigarettes	Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 69.3¢	$927.5	$999.62	+$72.12	53% 24340-21400 (45740)
alpheclabs2	Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 45.2¢	$230.67	$355.59	+$125.64	47% 1363-1536 (2899)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ioannis Xilasavg 30.9¢	$458.24	$316.5	-$141.1	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Ioannis Xilasavg 52.9¢	$412.78	$301.34	-$111.44	50% 21541-21839 (43380)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Ioannis Xilasavg 30.5¢	$312.8	$278.84	-$33.95	46% 1788-2098 (3886)
LR lryyy	Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 43¢	$75.68	$165.44	+$88.88	47% 9560-10672 (20232)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 44¢	$39.9	$42.3	+$17.4	64% 5376-2994 (8370)

RN1CTR

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$2,824.7

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

FlaznorpCTR

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$1,264.82

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$89.94

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

cigarettes

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Invested

$927.5

Value

$999.62

PnL

+$72.12

Record

53%

24340-21400 (45740)

alpheclabs2

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Invested

$230.67

Value

$355.59

PnL

+$125.64

Record

47%

1363-1536 (2899)

38791873984189CTR

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$458.24

Value

$316.5

PnL

-$141.1

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$412.78

Value

$301.34

PnL

-$111.44

Record

50%

21541-21839 (43380)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Ioannis Xilas

Invested

$312.8

Value

$278.84

PnL

-$33.95

Record

46%

1788-2098 (3886)

lryyy

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Invested

$75.68

Value

$165.44

PnL

+$88.88

Record

47%

9560-10672 (20232)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Invested

$39.9

Value

$42.3

PnL

+$17.4

Record

64%

5376-2994 (8370)

Research grade

AvoidIoannis Xilas at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ioannis Xilas

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Gilles Arnaud Bailly 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Ioannis Xilas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Ioannis Xilas) and the top 1000 (7 on Gilles Arnaud Bailly) disagree here.

whaleIoannis Xilas 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpGilles Arnaud Bailly 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrGilles Arnaud Bailly 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedIoannis Xilas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Gilles Arnaud Bailly 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ioannis Xilas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.