M15 Maanshan: Maxim Zhukov vs Xirui Han

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Xirui Han (57%) · Xirui Han at 100¢ · $194K held · ends Nov 18

Maxim Zhukov<1¢Xirui Han>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xirui Han

Consensus Traders

Xirui Han 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$193.6K

Combined PnL

$23.9K

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralXirui Han at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xirui Han

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Maxim Zhukov0%

Xirui Han100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xirui Han4 traders

Total Value$191.6K

Total Shares191,737

Combined PnL+$24.4K

Maxim Zhukov3 traders

Total Value$706.11

Total Shares2,436

Combined PnL-$587.89

Xirui Han — 57%Maxim Zhukov — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Xirui Han. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMaxim Zhukov 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperXirui Han 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMaxim Zhukov 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Xirui Han 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crazyoddslover	Xirui Hanavg 47.9¢	$56.5K	$96.3K	+$50.7K	— 7-7 (14)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Xirui Hanavg 98.2¢	$118.8K	$92.1K	$-26.7K	51% 3684-3525 (7209)
CI cigarettes	Xirui Hanavg 60.2¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$343.17	53% 5580-4967 (10547)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Maxim Zhukovavg 51.3¢	$1.0K	$766.57	-$258.44	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
└ Xirui Han leg	Xirui Hanavg 47.1¢	$283.79	$484.83	+$201.04
└ Maxim Zhukov leg	Maxim Zhukovavg 51.3¢	$741.21	$281.74	-$459.47
LR lryyyARB<$100	Maxim Zhukovavg 43.9¢	$594.8	$515.18	-$79.62	48% 203-219 (422)
└ Xirui Han leg	Xirui Hanavg 50.3¢	$223.63	$367.13	+$143.5
└ Maxim Zhukov leg	Maxim Zhukovavg 43.9¢	$371.17	$148.05	-$223.12
38 38791873984189CTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 46.8¢	$2.5K	$443.71	-$81.58	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
US User7429CTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 62.7¢	$411.59	$262.15	-$149.44	20% 85-333 (418)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Xirui Hanavg 21¢	$29.82	$72.42	+$42.6	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Maxim Zhukovavg 72.6¢	$357.12	$0.25	-$356.87	26% 131-365 (496)

crazyoddslover

Xirui Han

Invested

$56,536.57

Value

$96.3K

PnL

+$50.7K

Record

—

7-7 (14)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Xirui Han

Invested

$118,756.33

Value

$92.1K

PnL

$-26.7K

Record

51%

3684-3525 (7209)

cigarettes

Xirui Han

Invested

$2,767.81

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$343.17

Record

53%

5580-4967 (10547)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$1,025

Value

$766.57

PnL

-$258.44

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

Both legs:

Xirui Han$283.7947.1¢+$201.04

Maxim Zhukov$741.2151.3¢-$459.47

lryyyARB<$100

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$594.8

Value

$515.18

PnL

-$79.62

Record

48%

203-219 (422)

Both legs:

Xirui Han$223.6350.3¢+$143.5

Maxim Zhukov$371.1743.9¢-$223.12

38791873984189CTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$2,541.07

Value

$443.71

PnL

-$81.58

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

User7429CTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$411.59

Value

$262.15

PnL

-$149.44

Record

20%

85-333 (418)

Flaznorp<$100

Xirui Han

Invested

$29.82

Value

$72.42

PnL

+$42.6

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Maxim Zhukov

Invested

$357.12

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$356.87

Record

26%

131-365 (496)

Research grade

NeutralXirui Han at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Xirui Han

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Xirui Han. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMaxim Zhukov 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperXirui Han 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMaxim Zhukov 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Xirui Han 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xirui Han wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.