Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-11-07?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$290.89

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 99.2¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,406

Combined PnL-$250.51

Yes3 traders

Total Value$91.09

Total Shares376

Combined PnL-$40.37

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Noavg 97.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$6.38	48% 1720-1837 (3557)
VE Venusian	Noavg 97.6¢	$170.66	$170.02	-$0.64	49% 1774-1854 (3628)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 78.9¢	$379.92	$142.12	-$237.8	59% 33150-23318 (56468)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 20.2¢	$121.1	$75.41	-$45.69	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$180.1	$50.43	-$129.66	50% 28847-28660 (57507)
└ No leg	Noavg 32.8¢	$9.4	$28.38	+$18.99
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.6¢	$170.7	$22.05	-$148.65
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$10.12	$15.51	+$5.39	47% 9482-10610 (20092)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 55.2¢	$12.15	$6.49	-$5.66	84% 15040-2923 (17963)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$6.21	$6.17	-$0.03	50% 1794-1776 (3570)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.24	$0.17	-$0.07	53% 24137-21182 (45319)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,680.46

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$6.38

Record

48%

1720-1837 (3557)

Venusian

Invested

$170.66

Value

$170.02

PnL

-$0.64

Record

49%

1774-1854 (3628)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$379.92

Value

$142.12

PnL

-$237.8

Record

59%

33150-23318 (56468)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$121.1

Value

$75.41

PnL

-$45.69

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$180.1

Value

$50.43

PnL

-$129.66

Record

50%

28847-28660 (57507)

Both legs:

No$9.432.8¢+$18.99

Yes$170.76.6¢-$148.65

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.12

Value

$15.51

PnL

+$5.39

Record

47%

9482-10610 (20092)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$12.15

Value

$6.49

PnL

-$5.66

Record

84%

15040-2923 (17963)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$6.21

Value

$6.17

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

1794-1776 (3570)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

24137-21182 (45319)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.