Will Jaxson Dart have 3.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 85¢ · $975 held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$975.22

Combined PnL

$450.31

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 85.5¢

+74% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$956.27

Total Shares1,093

Combined PnL+$429.14

Yes2 traders

Total Value$18.95

Total Shares152

Combined PnL+$21.17

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1	Noavg 24¢	$120	$437.5	+$310.75	64% 1081-614 (1695)
Robbb	Noavg 82¢	$244.81	$261.37	+$14.75	77% 2132-646 (2778)
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c	Noavg 46.8¢	$72.97	$136.32	+$63.35	67% 806-403 (1209)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 87.1¢	$73.97	$74.3	+$0.58	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
HI hithitfar<$100	Noavg 25.6¢	$29.46	$33.26	+$40.56	59% 843-598 (1441)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.6¢	$66.77	$15.25	+$18.64	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
DR Dreamwire<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$14.38	$13.52	-$0.85	79% 3530-933 (4463)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$1.17	$3.7	+$2.53	19% 2981-12794 (15775)

ndb1

Invested

$120

Value

$437.5

PnL

+$310.75

Record

64%

1081-614 (1695)

Robbb

Invested

$244.81

Value

$261.37

PnL

+$14.75

Record

77%

2132-646 (2778)

0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c

Invested

$72.97

Value

$136.32

PnL

+$63.35

Record

67%

806-403 (1209)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$73.97

Value

$74.3

PnL

+$0.58

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

hithitfar<$100

Invested

$29.46

Value

$33.26

PnL

+$40.56

Record

59%

843-598 (1441)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.77

Value

$15.25

PnL

+$18.64

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

Dreamwire<$100

Invested

$14.38

Value

$13.52

PnL

-$0.85

Record

79%

3530-933 (4463)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$2.53

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.0%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.