Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 10¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$781.67

Smart Money Entry

4.5¢ → 10.2¢

+125% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares12,484

Combined PnL+$786.89

No1 trader

Total Value$44.58

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$5.22

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

690h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$139.63	$642.83	+$503.2	50% 1220-1233 (2453)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 10.5¢	$286.91	$337.02	+$50.11	53% 3043-2720 (5763)
macrosteaksCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$42.92	$153.04	+$110.12	54% 3274-2742 (6016)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$65.42	$81.94	+$65.55	36% 1887-3307 (5194)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$124.55	$70.32	+$21.94	38% 2935-4692 (7627)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$49.8	$44.58	-$5.22	77% 9134-2750 (11884)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$4.52	$33.66	+$29.14	72% 8554-3325 (11879)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$1.37	$8.2	+$6.83	63% 5411-3152 (8563)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.63

Value

$642.83

PnL

+$503.2

Record

50%

1220-1233 (2453)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$286.91

Value

$337.02

PnL

+$50.11

Record

53%

3043-2720 (5763)

macrosteaksCTR

Yes

Invested

$42.92

Value

$153.04

PnL

+$110.12

Record

54%

3274-2742 (6016)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.42

Value

$81.94

PnL

+$65.55

Record

36%

1887-3307 (5194)

GingerMcKennaCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.55

Value

$70.32

PnL

+$21.94

Record

38%

2935-4692 (7627)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$49.8

Value

$44.58

PnL

-$5.22

Record

77%

9134-2750 (11884)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.52

Value

$33.66

PnL

+$29.14

Record

72%

8554-3325 (11879)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.37

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$6.83

Record

63%

5411-3152 (8563)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

690h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.6%

10.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$762.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

862.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.