Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$6.74

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 78¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$676.79

Total Shares776

Combined PnL+$46.81

Yes1 trader

Total Value$111.77

Total Shares387

Combined PnL-$40.07

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$356.42	$285.06	+$70.98	35% 17549-32799 (50348)
└ No leg	Noavg 77.2¢	$157.52	$159.17	-$37.04
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.5¢	$71.3	$125.89	+$108.02
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Noavg 83.4¢	$380.91	$217.58	+$3.78	36% 205-358 (563)
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Noavg 84.2¢	$238.95	$208.37	+$0.17	49% 421-432 (853)
0X 0xAe81145A62f51cb1	Noavg 85.5¢	$184.63	$162	-$11.72	43% 688-904 (1592)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 34.9¢	$151.84	$111.77	-$40.07	20% 2469-9859 (12328)
HE HerrieDavis<$100	Noavg 28.6¢	$19.03	$65.42	+$46.39	36% 2155-3857 (6012)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 91¢	$18.2	$16.2	-$0.3	42% 5384-7432 (12816)
HI hithitfar	Noavg 78.2¢	$129	$7.21	+$8.48	58% 729-526 (1255)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$356.42

Value

$285.06

PnL

+$70.98

Record

35%

17549-32799 (50348)

Both legs:

No$157.5277.2¢-$37.04

Yes$71.312.5¢+$108.02

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Invested

$380.91

Value

$217.58

PnL

+$3.78

Record

36%

205-358 (563)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Invested

$238.95

Value

$208.37

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

421-432 (853)

0xAe81145A62f51cb1

Invested

$184.63

Value

$162

PnL

-$11.72

Record

43%

688-904 (1592)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$151.84

Value

$111.77

PnL

-$40.07

Record

20%

2469-9859 (12328)

HerrieDavis<$100

Invested

$19.03

Value

$65.42

PnL

+$46.39

Record

36%

2155-3857 (6012)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

$16.2

PnL

-$0.3

Record

42%

5384-7432 (12816)

hithitfar

Invested

$129

Value

$7.21

PnL

+$8.48

Record

58%

729-526 (1255)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.