Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid leading at halftime?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 50¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
1 arb excluded
$13.9K
$539.05
79¢ → 50¢
-37% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 79¢ | $5.1K | $3.9K | $-1.2K | 58% 49552-35660 (85212) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 77.2¢ | $2.3K | $3.7K | -$534.02 | 51% 23399-22168 (45567) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77.2¢ | $4.3K | $2.8K | -$813.25 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 22¢ | $396.32 | $900.73 | +$279.23 | |
 RN1 | Yesavg 21¢ | $1.3K | $3.1K | +$1.0K | 53% 59038-51355 (110393) |
MI MinevaJ | Yesavg 23¢ | $1.2K | $2.5K | +$739.49 | 57% 1088-834 (1922) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Noavg 78¢ | $426.82 | $326.13 | -$100.77 | 56% 7530-5969 (13499) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 22.1¢ | $107.1 | $242 | +$74.4 | 50% 27298-27227 (54525) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $27.09 | $96.3 | +$35.63 | 54% 22035-19135 (41170) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $6.35 | $5.17 | -$1.19 | 58% 44610-32488 (77098) |
Invested
$5,087.97
Value
$3.9K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
58%
49552-35660 (85212)
Invested
$2,317.09
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$534.02
Record
51%
23399-22168 (45567)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$1,319.04
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
53%
59038-51355 (110393)
Invested
$1,172.99
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$739.49
Record
57%
1088-834 (1922)
Invested
$426.82
Value
$326.13
PnL
-$100.77
Record
56%
7530-5969 (13499)
Invested
$107.1
Value
$242
PnL
+$74.4
Record
50%
27298-27227 (54525)
Invested
$27.09
Value
$96.3
PnL
+$35.63
Record
54%
22035-19135 (41170)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.35
Value
$5.17
PnL
-$1.19
Record
58%
44610-32488 (77098)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.