LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Gen.G (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (77%) · Gen.G at 63¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 15

Bilibili Gaming38¢Gen.G62¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gen.G

Consensus Traders

Gen.G 77%

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$80.16

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 62.5¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bilibili Gaming38%

Gen.G63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gen.G10 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares16,472

Combined PnL+$80

Bilibili Gaming3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,948

Combined PnL+$0.16

Gen.G — 77%Bilibili Gaming — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperGen.G 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrGen.G 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Gen.G 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
8DDD	Gen.Gavg 62¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$50	6% 2-30 (32)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	Gen.Gavg 63¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$0	—
7V 7ViziCapitale	Gen.Gavg 63¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$0	— 3-9 (12)
nigiri99CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 38¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	52% 122-112 (234)
GR gregbeastCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 38¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	0% 0-99 (99)
0X 0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927	Gen.Gavg 62¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$18	55% 233-190 (423)
TA taemaxx	Gen.Gavg 62¢	$620	$630	+$10	— 2-1 (3)
JU JuiceFarm	Gen.Gavg 63¢	$629.99	$629.99	-$0	— 4-1 (5)
KateBollinger<$100	Gen.Gavg 62¢	$70.55	$71.69	+$1.14	3% 3-89 (92)
38 38791873984189<$100	Gen.Gavg 62¢	$53.32	$54.18	+$0.86	48% 752-814 (1566)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Gen.Gavg 63¢	$45.9	$45.9	+$0	34% 164-316 (480)
-Pain<$100	Gen.Gavg 63¢	$6.3	$6.3	+$0	3% 2-72 (74)
RA randomrandomrandomCTR<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 37¢	$5.87	$6.03	+$0.16	— 3-1 (4)

8DDD

Gen.G

Invested

$3,100

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$50

Record

2-30 (32)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Gen.G

Invested

$2,729.79

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

7ViziCapitale

Gen.G

Invested

$1,927.74

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$0

Record

—

3-9 (12)

nigiri99CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$1,149.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

122-112 (234)

gregbeastCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$1,140

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

0-99 (99)

0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927

Gen.G

Invested

$1,116.22

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$18

Record

55%

233-190 (423)

taemaxx

Gen.G

Invested

$620

Value

$630

PnL

+$10

Record

—

2-1 (3)

JuiceFarm

Gen.G

Invested

$629.99

Value

$629.99

PnL

-$0

Record

—

4-1 (5)

KateBollinger<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$70.55

Value

$71.69

PnL

+$1.14

Record

3-89 (92)

38791873984189<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$53.32

Value

$54.18

PnL

+$0.86

Record

48%

752-814 (1566)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$45.9

Value

$45.9

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

164-316 (480)

-Pain<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0

Record

2-72 (74)

randomrandomrandomCTR<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$5.87

Value

$6.03

PnL

+$0.16

Record

—

3-1 (4)

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on Gen.G. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperGen.G 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrGen.G 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Gen.G 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gen.G wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.