Consensus PnL $138K · win rate 70% (28–12, n=40) · PM monthly #375 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$137.8K
Record
28W / 12L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 40 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#762
Source
PM monthly #375
Trades
4
Markets
72
Volume
$2.1M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 6 on the consensus side (67%)- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $42K · now 70¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $21K · now 71¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $19K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Yes $2.3K · now 47¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $1.1K · now 44¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes $320 · now 14¢ · in at 16¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
34 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 51¢- MMA
+33 pts
side won 92% of 12 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +24%
- Soccer
+17 pts
side won 67% of 12 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +9%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 11% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 60% of 5)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 100% of 9)
- 70¢ and up: 32%(won 100% of 11)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.