Game Handicap: SGW (-2.5) vs Gromp Esports (+2.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Saigon Warriors (44%) · Saigon Warriors at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 10

Saigon Warriors>99¢Gromp Esports<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saigon Warriors

Consensus Traders

Saigon Warriors 44%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

77.2¢ → 100¢

+29% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaigon Warriors at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saigon Warriors

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Saigon Warriors100%

Gromp Esports0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saigon Warriors4 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares6,039

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Gromp Esports5 traders

Total Value$94.66

Total Shares1,281

Combined PnL-$258.59

Saigon Warriors — 44%Gromp Esports — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Saigon Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSaigon Warriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGromp Esports 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Gromp Esports 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA wangyou1288	Saigon Warriorsavg 88.1¢	$3.3K	$3.8K	+$445.82	—
FA FailedMission	Saigon Warriorsavg 58¢	$1.2K	$2.1K	+$892.14	— 4-2 (6)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	Saigon Warriorsavg 85.9¢	$74.91	$87.17	+$12.26	2% 10-422 (432)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Saigon Warriorsavg 66¢	$32.13	$48.63	+$16.5	10% 39-370 (409)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Gromp Esportsavg 33.4¢	$166.68	$34.93	-$131.75	22% 81-290 (371)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Gromp Esportsavg 24¢	$87.22	$29.58	-$57.64	23% 142-486 (628)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Gromp Esportsavg 10.2¢	$26.13	$17.22	-$6.4	51% 256-247 (503)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Gromp Esportsavg 41.9¢	$61.69	$10.3	-$51.39	27% 62-168 (230)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Gromp Esportsavg 37.3¢	$14.05	$2.63	-$11.42	41% 3005-4412 (7417)

wangyou1288

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$3,320.06

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$445.82

Record

—

FailedMission

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$1,239.23

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$892.14

Record

—

4-2 (6)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$74.91

Value

$87.17

PnL

+$12.26

Record

10-422 (432)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$32.13

Value

$48.63

PnL

+$16.5

Record

10%

39-370 (409)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Gromp Esports

Invested

$166.68

Value

$34.93

PnL

-$131.75

Record

22%

81-290 (371)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Gromp Esports

Invested

$87.22

Value

$29.58

PnL

-$57.64

Record

23%

142-486 (628)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Gromp Esports

Invested

$26.13

Value

$17.22

PnL

-$6.4

Record

51%

256-247 (503)

biying88888CTR<$100

Gromp Esports

Invested

$61.69

Value

$10.3

PnL

-$51.39

Record

27%

62-168 (230)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Gromp Esports

Invested

$14.05

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$11.42

Record

41%

3005-4412 (7417)

Research grade

NeutralSaigon Warriors at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Saigon Warriors

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Saigon Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSaigon Warriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGromp Esports 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Gromp Esports 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saigon Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.