Games Total: O/U 3.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 10

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

97.8¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,393

Combined PnL+$114

Over5 traders

Total Value$86.14

Total Shares3,857

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Malfunction.	Underavg 99.9¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$2.26	99% 71-1 (72)
WA wangyou1288	Underavg 89.3¢	$739.18	$827.08	+$87.91	—
AM ameisgoat11CTR	Overavg 37.4¢	$159.05	$82.55	-$76.5	22% 141-486 (627)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Underavg 66¢	$46.4	$70.24	+$23.84	10% 39-369 (408)
alpheclabs2CTR	Overavg 33.2¢	$1.1K	$3.38	$-1.1K	48% 66-71 (137)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 32.9¢	$42.9	$0.13	-$42.77	22% 81-290 (371)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$20.9	$0.07	-$2.8	51% 256-245 (501)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$3.9	$0.01	-$3.89	40% 3003-4412 (7415)

Malfunction.

Under

Invested

$4,490.35

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$2.26

Record

99%

71-1 (72)

wangyou1288

Under

Invested

$739.18

Value

$827.08

PnL

+$87.91

Record

—

ameisgoat11CTR

Over

Invested

$159.05

Value

$82.55

PnL

-$76.5

Record

22%

141-486 (627)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Under

Invested

$46.4

Value

$70.24

PnL

+$23.84

Record

10%

39-369 (408)

alpheclabs2CTR

Over

Invested

$1,124.19

Value

$3.38

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

48%

66-71 (137)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.9

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$42.77

Record

22%

81-290 (371)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.9

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.8

Record

51%

256-245 (501)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.9

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.89

Record

40%

3003-4412 (7415)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.