Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$3.7K
$913.27
81.7¢ → 93¢
+14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
10 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 gopfan2 | Noavg 78¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$289.04 | 51% 901-875 (1776) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 89.6¢ | $820.41 | $808.05 | +$9.28 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
10 101456 | No | $728.07 | $728.07 | +$596.88 | 53% 141-126 (267) |
 XAE12Archangel | Noavg 79.9¢ | $175.2 | $182.6 | +$7.4 | 66% 784-407 (1191) |
TH thoodr<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $83.7 | $82.17 | -$1.85 | 96% 631-24 (655) |
 0xdc3E831cad<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $52.75 | $67.98 | +$15.23 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
 DEGENKHAN<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $20.71 | $20.09 | -$0.63 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
 nicoco89CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.9¢ | $6.21 | $4.12 | -$2.09 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
gopfan2Invested
$1,533.71
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$289.04
Record
51%
901-875 (1776)
Invested
$820.41
Value
$808.05
PnL
+$9.28
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$728.07
Value
$728.07
PnL
+$596.88
Record
53%
141-126 (267)
XAE12ArchangelInvested
$175.2
Value
$182.6
PnL
+$7.4
Record
66%
784-407 (1191)
Invested
$83.7
Value
$82.17
PnL
-$1.85
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
0xdc3E831cad<$100Invested
$52.75
Value
$67.98
PnL
+$15.23
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
DEGENKHAN<$100Invested
$20.71
Value
$20.09
PnL
-$0.63
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
nicoco89CTR<$100Invested
$6.21
Value
$4.12
PnL
-$2.09
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.