Will Club León FC vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 69¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 9

Yes32¢No68¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$46.13

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 68.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,692

Combined PnL-$70.07

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares8,218

Combined PnL+$116.2

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Noavg 72.1¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$84.3	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 29.8¢	$914.65	$953.62	+$38.97	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
PT PT-S7	Noavg 68.6¢	$688.48	$687.93	-$0.54	46% 3489-4043 (7532)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 28.8¢	$564.05	$616.51	+$52.46	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 29.9¢	$628.94	$558.21	-$70.73	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$183.7	$246.62	+$62.92	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$205.93	$239.93	+$33.99	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 64.1¢	$214.04	$228.86	+$14.83	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.2¢	$13.01	$11.97	-$1.04	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 69¢	$6.9	$6.85	-$0.05	52% 6060-5587 (11647)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.2¢	$2.05	$1.67	-$0.39	33% 1256-2575 (3831)

38791873984189

Invested

$1,689.76

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$84.3

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$914.65

Value

$953.62

PnL

+$38.97

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

PT-S7

Invested

$688.48

Value

$687.93

PnL

-$0.54

Record

46%

3489-4043 (7532)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$564.05

Value

$616.51

PnL

+$52.46

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$628.94

Value

$558.21

PnL

-$70.73

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$183.7

Value

$246.62

PnL

+$62.92

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$205.93

Value

$239.93

PnL

+$33.99

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$214.04

Value

$228.86

PnL

+$14.83

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.01

Value

$11.97

PnL

-$1.04

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

6060-5587 (11647)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$0.39

Record

33%

1256-2575 (3831)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.