Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 44¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 13%
$7.4K
-$40.5
Research grade
NeutralOver at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
13% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 43.5¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | -$41.86 | 50% 19450-19817 (39267) |
FO forecastication4 | Underavg 56¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$20.19 | 49% 1199-1227 (2426) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 57.8¢ | $653.15 | $644.1 | -$14.7 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Underavg 58.6¢ | $267.07 | $261.95 | -$5.13 | 72% 6830-2625 (9455) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Underavg 56.5¢ | $226 | $228 | +$0 | 54% 4943-4171 (9114) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 56.6¢ | $72.96 | $73.53 | +$1.22 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $14.21 | $13.97 | -$0.12 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $5.8 | $5.65 | -$0.1 | 52% 7503-6793 (14296) |
Invested
$3,932.24
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$41.86
Record
50%
19450-19817 (39267)
Invested
$2,261.17
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$20.19
Record
49%
1199-1227 (2426)
VeryLucky888Invested
$653.15
Value
$644.1
PnL
-$14.7
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$267.07
Value
$261.95
PnL
-$5.13
Record
72%
6830-2625 (9455)
Invested
$226
Value
$228
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4943-4171 (9114)
Invested
$72.96
Value
$73.53
PnL
+$1.22
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.21
Value
$13.97
PnL
-$0.12
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$5.65
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
7503-6793 (14296)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.