Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 86¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$59.16

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 86¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,367

Combined PnL+$60.56

Yes2 traders

Total Value$663.23

Total Shares4,911

Combined PnL-$1.4

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

738h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 85.9¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$4.35	89% 4695-554 (5249)
Michael-The-Taxiarch	Noavg 84.2¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$29.23	54% 46-39 (85)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$700	$657.63	+$0	65% 864-466 (1330)
LornaPredicts	Noavg 74.9¢	$166.58	$75.55	+$25.24	20% 2375-9305 (11680)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 88¢	$20	$17.2	-$0.4	42% 5367-7395 (12762)
ME melonmanm<$100	Noavg 74¢	$10.9	$12.67	+$1.77	65% 561-297 (858)
archaic<$100	Noavg 81¢	$6.16	$6.54	+$0.38	85% 1932-344 (2276)
DOG-UndressedVersionCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.5¢	$7	$5.6	-$1.4	50% 2320-2302 (4622)

nonkenny90

Invested

$3,128

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$4.35

Record

89%

4695-554 (5249)

Michael-The-Taxiarch

Invested

$1,341.62

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$29.23

Record

54%

46-39 (85)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$700

Value

$657.63

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

864-466 (1330)

LornaPredicts

Invested

$166.58

Value

$75.55

PnL

+$25.24

Record

20%

2375-9305 (11680)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$0.4

Record

42%

5367-7395 (12762)

melonmanm<$100

Invested

$10.9

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$1.77

Record

65%

561-297 (858)

archaic<$100

Invested

$6.16

Value

$6.54

PnL

+$0.38

Record

85%

1932-344 (2276)

DOG-UndressedVersionCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$1.4

Record

50%

2320-2302 (4622)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

738h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.0%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.