Spread: Celtics (-5.5)

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (33%) · 76ers at 60¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Celtics40¢76ers60¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 33%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$85.41

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 60¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics40%

76ers60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers4 traders

Total Value$677.1

Total Shares1,204

Combined PnL-$11.5

Celtics8 traders

Total Value$487.77

Total Shares1,320

Combined PnL-$73.91

76ers — 33%Celtics — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	76ersavg 57.2¢	$296.15	$269.39	-$26.76	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
38 38791873984189	76ersavg 56.7¢	$195.34	$191.22	-$4.12	48% 947-1017 (1964)
RN1	76ersavg 59¢	$164.44	$176.99	+$12.54	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Celticsavg 42.1¢	$191.85	$166.4	-$25.45	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Celticsavg 41.9¢	$165.79	$144.47	-$21.32	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Celticsavg 44.7¢	$98.94	$80.74	-$18.2	28% 278-703 (981)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Celticsavg 43¢	$66.74	$61.31	-$5.43	28% 278-729 (1007)
PA Pan9X<$100	76ersavg 56.6¢	$58.13	$39.5	+$6.84	49% 443-470 (913)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Celticsavg 46¢	$17.51	$13.89	-$3.62	28% 274-715 (989)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Celticsavg 37¢	$10.36	$10.75	+$0.39	48% 190-206 (396)
BR BreakTheBankCTR<$100	Celticsavg 37¢	$9.48	$9.36	-$0.13	42% 574-809 (1383)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Celticsavg 43¢	$1	$0.85	-$0.15	6% 26-414 (440)

6512395314597884

76ers

Invested

$296.15

Value

$269.39

PnL

-$26.76

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

38791873984189

76ers

Invested

$195.34

Value

$191.22

PnL

-$4.12

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

RN1

76ers

Invested

$164.44

Value

$176.99

PnL

+$12.54

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

FlaznorpCTR

Celtics

Invested

$191.85

Value

$166.4

PnL

-$25.45

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Celtics

Invested

$165.79

Value

$144.47

PnL

-$21.32

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$98.94

Value

$80.74

PnL

-$18.2

Record

28%

278-703 (981)

VenusianCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$66.74

Value

$61.31

PnL

-$5.43

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

Pan9X<$100

76ers

Invested

$58.13

Value

$39.5

PnL

+$6.84

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$17.51

Value

$13.89

PnL

-$3.62

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$10.36

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$0.39

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

BreakTheBankCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$9.48

Value

$9.36

PnL

-$0.13

Record

42%

574-809 (1383)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

26-414 (440)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.