Spread: Celtics (-2.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (70%) · Raptors at 51¢ · $795 held · ended Nov 12

Celtics50¢Raptors50¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$795.37

Combined PnL

$21.74

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 50.5¢

+25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics50%

Raptors51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors7 traders

Total Value$315.35

Total Shares680

Combined PnL+$30.52

Celtics3 traders

Total Value$174.28

Total Shares338

Combined PnL-$8.79

Raptors — 70%Celtics — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Celticsavg 59¢	$460.64	$305.74	-$62.89	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 59¢	$199.24	$163.88	-$61.29
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 52.1¢	$143.47	$141.87	-$1.6
AN Anon455	Raptorsavg 41¢	$122.66	$146.49	+$23.84	45% 182-223 (405)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Raptorsavg 41¢	$90.97	$95.41	+$4.44	53% 1841-1653 (3494)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Celticsavg 46¢	$92	$90	-$2	50% 3299-3255 (6554)
38 38791873984189CTR	Celticsavg 64¢	$135.54	$60.72	-$6.63	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Raptorsavg 39.4¢	$52.5	$53.79	+$1.3	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Celticsavg 62.4¢	$23.72	$23.56	-$0.16	49% 684-724 (1408)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Raptorsavg 36¢	$9	$9.75	+$0.75	46% 292-339 (631)
SE sentrio<$100	Raptorsavg 39¢	$3.9	$4.05	+$0.15	39% 382-610 (992)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Raptorsavg 39¢	$3.9	$3.9	+$0	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
LI Limousin<$100	Raptorsavg 38¢	$1.9	$1.95	+$0.05	30% 399-910 (1309)

RN1ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$460.64

Value

$305.74

PnL

-$62.89

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

Both legs:

Celtics$199.2459¢-$61.29

Raptors$143.4752.1¢-$1.6

Anon455

Raptors

Invested

$122.66

Value

$146.49

PnL

+$23.84

Record

45%

182-223 (405)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Raptors

Invested

$90.97

Value

$95.41

PnL

+$4.44

Record

53%

1841-1653 (3494)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$92

Value

$90

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

3299-3255 (6554)

38791873984189CTR

Celtics

Invested

$135.54

Value

$60.72

PnL

-$6.63

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Raptors

Invested

$52.5

Value

$53.79

PnL

+$1.3

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$23.72

Value

$23.56

PnL

-$0.16

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

SnakeBall<$100

Raptors

Invested

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

sentrio<$100

Raptors

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

Flaznorp<$100

Raptors

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

Limousin<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.