Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Knicks (56%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Knicks (-2.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (58%) · Cavaliers at 45¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12

Knicks56¢Cavaliers44¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 58%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$28.21

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 44.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks56%

Cavaliers45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks5 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares6,844

Combined PnL-$122.99

Cavaliers7 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares9,632

Combined PnL+$151.2

Knicks — 42%Cavaliers — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCavaliers 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Knicksavg 57¢	$4.3K	$3.9K	-$121.25	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$3.6K	$3.3K	+$131.24	52% 464-433 (897)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Cavaliersavg 41¢	$350.77	$376.44	+$25.67	70% 1671-717 (2388)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Cavaliersavg 45¢	$360	$352	-$8	15% 145-839 (984)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$175.22	$179.29	+$4.07	31% 385-855 (1240)
38 38791873984189<$100	Knicksavg 57¢	$82.08	$80.64	-$1.44	48% 1381-1515 (2896)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 45.7¢	$61.55	$59.25	-$2.29	38% 352-584 (936)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Knicksavg 56¢	$39.97	$39.97	+$0	45% 267-322 (589)
PA Pan9X<$100	Knicksavg 56.3¢	$42.81	$35.84	-$0.25	48% 673-715 (1388)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 42¢	$10.57	$11.08	+$0.5	51% 1853-1805 (3658)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 44¢	$8.68	$8.68	+$0	59% 3477-2368 (5845)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Knicksavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.8	-$0.05	32% 297-622 (919)

HomeRunHazard

Knicks

Invested

$4,277.94

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$121.25

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$3,586.04

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$131.24

Record

52%

464-433 (897)

SunlineTickerCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$350.77

Value

$376.44

PnL

+$25.67

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$360

Value

$352

PnL

-$8

Record

15%

145-839 (984)

MadridTimeCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$175.22

Value

$179.29

PnL

+$4.07

Record

31%

385-855 (1240)

38791873984189<$100

Knicks

Invested

$82.08

Value

$80.64

PnL

-$1.44

Record

48%

1381-1515 (2896)

sentrioCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$61.55

Value

$59.25

PnL

-$2.29

Record

38%

352-584 (936)

SnakeBall<$100

Knicks

Invested

$39.97

Value

$39.97

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

Pan9X<$100

Knicks

Invested

$42.81

Value

$35.84

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

673-715 (1388)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$10.57

Value

$11.08

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

1853-1805 (3658)

NM-PCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$8.68

Value

$8.68

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3477-2368 (5845)

ameisgoat11<$100

Knicks

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.05

Record

32%

297-622 (919)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCavaliers 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCavaliers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.