Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (25%) · Nuggets at 52¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12

Nuggets52¢Grizzlies48¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 25%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$7.96

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nuggets52%

Grizzlies49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets2 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,800

Combined PnL-$28.25

Grizzlies6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,136

Combined PnL+$20.29

Nuggets — 25%Grizzlies — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Nuggetsavg 52¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$28.85	1% 5-496 (501)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.82	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
LI LimousinCTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$532.38	$537.93	+$5.55	30% 372-863 (1235)
VE VenusianCTR	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$264.36	$267.11	+$2.75	30% 376-862 (1238)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$40.13	$40.13	-$0	45% 262-316 (578)
FO forecastication4<$100	Nuggetsavg 50¢	$15	$15.6	+$0.6	18% 48-217 (265)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$10.83	$10.94	+$0.11	30% 371-861 (1232)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 47¢	$2.55	$2.6	+$0.05	48% 1299-1404 (2703)

JAMJAMJAM4

Nuggets

Invested

$3,000.36

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$28.85

Record

5-496 (501)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,135

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.82

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

LimousinCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$532.38

Value

$537.93

PnL

+$5.55

Record

30%

372-863 (1235)

VenusianCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$264.36

Value

$267.11

PnL

+$2.75

Record

30%

376-862 (1238)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$40.13

Value

$40.13

PnL

-$0

Record

45%

262-316 (578)

forecastication4<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$15

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$10.83

Value

$10.94

PnL

+$0.11

Record

30%

371-861 (1232)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

1299-1404 (2703)

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.